March 3, 2026 - Comercio Partners has strongly advised both retail and institutional investors to make diversification their paramount focus throughout 2026. The financial services firm issued this caution in its 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook, highlighting that persistent domestic and global uncertainties, compounded by Nigeria's approach to another pre-election cycle, are poised to increase market volatility.

While Comercio Partners projects a scenario of moderating inflation, gradual monetary easing, and steady economic growth, the firm emphasized that significant risks remain elevated. Despite a notable improvement in macroeconomic stability compared to the turbulence experienced in 2024, the investment terrain is characterized as fragile.

"We are still operating in a world of uncertainty," the firm stated. "Neither analysts nor policymakers can predict with certainty what will happen in the next few months. That is why diversification remains the most important strategy for investors in 2026."

According to the outlook, Nigeria's inflation rate, which surged above 30 percent during the peak of reform adjustments, is now on a downward trend. Comercio Partners forecasts that inflation could fall to between 10 and 11 percent in the first half of 2026 under a best-case scenario. The base case estimate stands at approximately 16 percent. However, in a worst-case scenario, influenced by oil price shocks, security challenges, or policy misalignments, inflation could escalate to between 18 and 22 percent.

Regarding economic growth, Comercio Partners anticipates a 4.5 percent expansion for the Nigerian economy under its base case. An upside potential of five percent is foreseen if oil production strengthens and agricultural output sees improvement. Nonetheless, the firm warned that pre-election uncertainties and ongoing global geopolitical tensions could dampen investor confidence.

The firm noted that following two years of elevated interest rates that saw many investors flock to fixed-income instruments like Treasury Bills and commercial papers, the anticipated gradual rate cuts by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in 2026 are likely to alter capital allocation patterns.

With the Monetary Policy Rate currently hovering around 26 percent after a modest year-end cut in 2025, Comercio Partners expects two to three additional rate cuts from the CBN in 2026. This could potentially bring the benchmark rate down to a range of 23.5 to 25 percent.

Despite this anticipated monetary easing, Ologunagbe cautioned investors against completely abandoning fixed-income assets. "Investors should avoid concentrating their portfolios in one asset class. While equities may continue to benefit from improving corporate earnings and pension fund participation, fixed income still offers stability. A balanced portfolio helps cushion shocks," he advised.

Comercio Partners also projects more moderate returns on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) in 2026, following a robust 51 percent rally in 2025. The firm warned that the risk of capital flight could resurface in the third and fourth quarters as political activities intensify ahead of the general elections.

On the foreign exchange front, Comercio Partners forecasts a base case range of ₦1,400 to ₦1,450 per dollar. A stronger outcome of ₦1,200 per dollar is considered possible under favorable oil and capital inflow conditions.

While acknowledging the progress made through foreign exchange reforms and improved policy coordination, the firm underscored that geopolitical tensions, oil price volatility, and domestic political dynamics remain key risk factors.

"The message is simple. Diversification is not optional in 2026. It is essential," the company asserted.