Key Highlights

• Dangote Refinery increased its petrol gantry price by N121, from N874 to N995 per litre.
• This adjustment reflects a 12% increase in ex-depot price, with coastal delivery at N948 per litre.
• The refinery has absorbed approximately 20% of cost escalation to cushion the domestic market.
• Global Brent crude prices have surged by over 32.39% to above $84.5 per barrel due to Middle East tensions.
• Nigeria's domestic crude supply to the refinery remains below requirement, forcing reliance on forex for imports.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals has implemented a price adjustment for its Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), increasing the ex-depot price by N121 per litre, bringing it to N995 per litre. Coastal delivery is priced at N948 per litre. This move comes as the refinery navigates significant volatility in global crude oil markets, largely driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Iran.

Analysts have commended the Dangote Refinery for its role in stabilising Nigeria's energy market. Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, noted that while crude oil prices have risen by over 32.39 per cent since the crisis began, climbing above $84.5 per barrel, the refinery's ex-depot price of PMS has seen an increase of about 12 per cent. "The price of crude has gone up about 32% but the price of PMS has gone up about 12%, so the Dangote Refinery has absorbed over half of the increase," Rewane stated.

According to the Dangote Refinery, it has absorbed approximately 20% of the cost escalation to cushion the impact on the domestic market, despite facing increased costs for crude oil. The company highlighted that Nigerian crude oil is priced higher than the Brent benchmark by $3 to $6 per barrel, and after adding freight of $3.50 per barrel, crude oil lands in their tanks between $88 and $91 per barrel. This compares to crude oil landing at about $68 per barrel when the ex-depot price was N774 per litre.

The refinery also pointed out challenges with domestic crude supply. While it receives about five cargoes of crude oil per month from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), which are paid for in naira, this volume is significantly below the 13 cargoes required monthly to meet domestic demand. The cargoes supplied by NNPC are also priced at international market rates plus a premium. Consequently, the refinery is compelled to procure foreign exchange at open market rates to acquire crude cargoes from both local and international traders. The situation is further exacerbated by the failure of some upstream producers to supply crude oil as stipulated under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

Dr. Muda Yusuf, Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), described the refinery as a crucial stabilising factor for Nigeria's energy security, especially as many countries are grappling with skyrocketing prices and product shortages. He noted that while some price increase is inevitable due to crude feedstock costs, the impact has been significantly moderated by the local refinery.

The Middle East tensions have led to disruptions in global oil markets, including refinery shutdowns and reduced production. China has also banned the export of gasoline and diesel. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route, has been particularly affected, with shipments and trucking of petroleum products disrupted. Brent crude oil prices have consequently surged, trading at $87.44 per barrel, with forecasts predicting further increases if the conflict escalates.

In the United Kingdom, petrol prices reportedly climbed to £169.9 pence per litre, with long queues forming at filling stations. Analysts warn that without the Dangote Refinery's 650,000 barrels per day capacity, Nigeria would have faced severe product scarcity and sharper price increases.

Prof. Ken Ife, a development economist, noted that such Middle East tensions have wider implications for Africa, which has limited refining capacity and spends over $120 billion annually importing petroleum products. He stressed the importance of enforcing domestic crude supply obligations to strengthen local refining capacity.

Dr. Abimbola Oyarinu, a university lecturer and public affairs analyst, stated that while the refinery provides supply security and reduces scarcity risk, global volatility will still transmit into the domestic economy through fuel price inflation. He emphasised that sustainable economic stability would require complementary policy discipline, transparency in pricing, and the development of strategic reserves.

Afolabi Olowookere, Managing Director and Chief Economist at Analysts’ Data Services and Resources (ADSR) Limited, urged swift action to address the issue of inadequate crude supply to the Dangote Refinery, highlighting the strategic benefits it offers. He noted that while Nigerians anticipate lower fuel prices from the refinery, prevailing market realities such as global crude oil prices, crude supply costs, and refining margins make substantial price reductions unlikely in the short term.

The latest price adjustment follows a previous increase on March 4, 2026, when the refinery raised its petrol gantry price by N100, from N774 to N874 per litre. Filling stations in Abuja, such as Conoil and NNPC outlets along Airport Road in Lugbe, were observed selling petrol at N1,080 and N1,081 per litre on Sunday, up from N960 per litre previously.