Nigeria’s crude oil production could rise to about 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030 as the industry gradually recovers from years of underinvestment and regulatory inefficiencies in the upstream oil and gas sector, according to Austin Avuru.
Avuru, a former NNPC geologist and Co-Founder and Pioneer Chief Executive Officer of Platform Petroleum Limited and Seplat Energy Plc, made the projection on Thursday, April 9, 2026, at a high-level upstream oil and gas roundtable convened at The Wheatbaker Hotel, Ikoyi, Lagos by Olaniwun Ajayi LP.
He said the outlook reflects a prolonged structural downturn driven by a decade-long collapse in investment and output that significantly disrupted production growth, warning that the effects would take years to fully unwind despite a gradual recovery in investment activity.
According to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s crude oil production stood at about 1.38 million barrels per day in March 2026.
Avuru projected that Nigeria’s crude oil production could reach about 2.3 million barrels per day by 2030, noting that the industry is only just beginning to recover from a prolonged period of weak investment and structural inefficiencies.
He compared the current situation in the oil and gas sector to past disruptions in Nigeria’s banking industry, arguing that delayed regulatory responses contributed significantly to long-term output losses.
“For almost a 10-year period, between about 2012 and 2022, there was practically no investment in the industry. If you plot the graph, you see investment coming down from $22 billion a year to an average of $5 billion a year in 2022. It coincides exactly with the same graph: production coming down from the high of 2.6 million barrels per day until we touched 900,000 barrels per day,” Avuru said.
“The industry is just about picking up via investments. But it will take another three years to five years to go back to the levels we’re seeing. Probably tough to go back to 2.6 million barrels, but 2.3 million barrels a day. We’ll start thinking about this in 2030 and post-2030,” he added.
Avuru said the downturn was driven by structural and regulatory inefficiencies that slowed investment, especially during divestments by international oil companies, noting that approval delays worsened the situation as exiting firms cut spending and new operators ramped up slowly, prolonging weak capital inflows and declining output.
Avuru linked the sector’s challenges to broader issues of execution discipline, governance, and operational efficiency within oil and gas companies, stressing that production recovery depends not only on capital but also on execution quality. He said companies must focus on disciplined planning, clear production targets, and transparent performance tracking to improve outcomes.
