Nigeria has the potential to transform the risks inherent in its oil and gas sector into opportunities for growth, provided operators and regulators work together in an environment that prioritises transparency and avoids late-stage policy changes, according to a senior Shell executive.

Ronald Adams, managing director of Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Limited (SNEPCo), stated at an industry conference in Lagos this week that predictable fiscal and regulatory frameworks were essential to attracting the capital needed to develop Africa’s energy resources.

“When there is long-term predictability of the investment climate in terms of competitive and stable fiscal and regulatory frameworks, risks can be actively managed to unlock significant capital for growth and development even in challenging environments,” Adams said in remarks delivered on his behalf at the Sub-Saharan Africa International Petroleum Exhibition and Conference.

His comments come as international oil companies reassess their African portfolios amid pressure to allocate capital to more profitable ventures and the energy transition. Several majors, including Shell, have retreated from onshore operations in Nigeria in recent years, citing operational challenges and regulatory uncertainty.

Adams described Nigeria as “a test case for African de-risking,” arguing that recent government reforms and improved engagement with industry had begun to restore investor confidence. He pointed to SNEPCo’s final investment decisions on the Bonga North project in 2024 and the HI project in 2025 as evidence that the investment climate had improved.

The Bonga field, which has operated for more than two decades, was held up as an example of how sustained operational performance could attract further capital. Adams attributed its longevity to safety leadership, disciplined maintenance and continuous workforce development.

“Nigeria shows that Africa’s oil and gas projects can compete globally when technical excellence meets regulatory alignment and local content capability,” he told delegates at the conference, which opened in Lagos this week.

The Nigerian government has sought to revitalise its petroleum sector through the Petroleum Industry Act, passed in 2021 after years of delay, which aimed to modernise the regulatory framework and improve transparency. However, implementation has been uneven, and concerns persist about fiscal stability and the operational environment.

Industry executives say that while the reforms represent progress, investors remain cautious about regulatory consistency and the risk of unexpected policy shifts that can undermine project economics.

Adams argued that Nigeria’s experience could serve as “a blueprint for unlocking capital, accelerating project timelines, and sustaining value creation across Africa’s evolving energy landscape”, provided the current momentum towards regulatory predictability continued.

Lower oil output drags NNPC’s December profit by 30%.