Key Highlights

• Petrol prices in Lagos now range from N935-N940/litre, up from ~N830.
• Diesel prices in Lagos are N1,150/litre.
• Abuja petrol prices have risen to between N960 and N975/litre.
• Dangote Refinery increased its PMS ex-depot price by ₦100 to ₦874 per litre.
• Diesel ex-depot prices climbed by ₦170 to ₦1,050 per litre.

Nigeria is experiencing significant domestic shockwaves following sharp increases in fuel prices, with both the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) adjusting their ex-depot prices for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS, petrol) and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO, diesel). This price realignment, which took effect on Tuesday, 3 March, has triggered an immediate surge in pump prices across the nation.

In Lagos, petrol prices have jumped to between N935 and N940 per litre, a substantial increase from the previous ~N830. Diesel is now selling at N1,150 per litre in the same city. Abuja residents are facing petrol prices ranging from N960 to N975 per litre.

The catalyst for this price adjustment was the Dangote Refinery's decision on 2 March to alter its pricing structure, citing volatile shifts in the global energy market. The refinery raised its ex-depot price for PMS by ₦100 to ₦874 per litre, attributing the move to 'changes in global crude fundamentals and replacement costs'. This followed a brief suspension of loading operations as international crude prices surged past $80 per barrel.

Diesel prices have seen an even steeper increase, climbing by ₦170 to reach an ex-depot price of ₦1,050 per litre. This has already translated into pump prices of N1,100 to N1,150 at private depots in Lagos, raising significant concerns for businesses, including factories and telecommunications companies, that rely heavily on diesel for power generation.

The primary driver behind these price hikes is the 'risk premium' now embedded in global crude prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, specifically the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the USA. Fears of supply disruptions near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which 20% of the world's crude passes, have pushed Brent crude, Nigeria's benchmark, above $84 per barrel.

Nigeria’s fully deregulated downstream sector now functions as a direct transmission belt for these global shocks. Increased crude costs are immediately reflected in the price of refined products and subsequently passed on to the end consumer.

In response to the price surge, major marketers such as MRS, TotalEnergies, and Eterna have quickly aligned with the new price bands, updating their pumps in Lagos and Abuja. The price increases have also amplified calls from industry bodies like PETROAN and CORAN, urging the government to expand the 'Naira-for-Crude' initiative. They argue that a policy allowing local refineries to purchase crude in Naira would insulate domestic fuel prices from foreign exchange volatility and global market swings.

Meanwhile, the escalating geopolitical tensions have had a profound human impact. Emeka Oparah, a Nigerian international executive based in Dubai, shared a poignant account of the psychological and physical strain experienced during the initial 96 hours of the conflict. He described the surreal experience of missiles and drones raining down, while commending the UAE government's preparedness and communication efforts. Oparah's message to 'warmongers' served as a stark reminder of the devastating consequences of war, drawing parallels to his experiences during the Nigerian Civil War and highlighting the severe impact of hunger, invoking the term 'Kwashiorkor' to illustrate its true meaning.

In a separate development aimed at fostering peace within Nigeria, a pivotal peace conference was held in Northwest Nigeria on 3 March. Organised by Global Rights and Partners West Africa Nigeria (PWAN), the event concluded the UK FCDO-funded Integrated Security Fund project and signalled a strategic shift towards multi-stakeholder collaboration to address the region's banditry crisis. Key insights from the conference highlighted the amplified impact of conflict on women due to sociocultural norms, underscoring the need for peace efforts to actively dismantle these barriers. Bishop Matthew Kukah emphasised the role of women as foundational agents of stability, stating, 'Strong families build strong communities. Strong communities build a strong nation.' Kemi Okenyodo, Executive Director of PWAN, stressed that sustainable peace is unattainable without functional justice systems and improved access to the rule of law, arguing that communities must have faith in legal frameworks for dialogue to be effective. The conference, which included the Sultan of Sokoto, reinforces a growing consensus on addressing root causes like social inequality, legal impunity, and gender-based marginalisation for lasting peace.

Further highlighting potential vulnerabilities, a troubling observation has emerged regarding the operational security of Nigeria's foreign missions. Reports indicate that some overseas posts are reportedly using commercial, unsecured email platforms such as Gmail and Yahoo for official correspondence with the Home Office, including both classified and unclassified information. This practice raises fundamental questions about digital sovereignty, data security, and the nation's susceptibility to foreign intelligence gathering, prompting a critical inquiry into who is safeguarding Nigeria's strategic interests in an era of sophisticated cyber warfare.