Key Highlights

• Brent crude settled up $4.01, or 4.93 per cent, at $85.41 per barrel.
• US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled up $6.35, or 8.51 per cent, to $81.01.
• South Korea secured a deal to ship approximately 4 million barrels of crude oil from the UAE.
• Emirates resumed Dubai-Lagos–Dubai flights on Friday, March 6, 2026.
• Dangote Refinery increased its ex-depot price of petrol by N100 per litre.

Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, have sent shockwaves through global energy markets. The repercussions are being felt keenly in Nigeria, with rising oil prices, disruptions to international trade, and impacts on crucial sectors like aviation and fuel supply.

Oil prices experienced a significant rally, with Brent crude settling up $4.01, or 4.93 per cent, at $85.41 per barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude also saw substantial gains, closing up $6.35, or 8.51 per cent, at $81.01, its highest level since July 2024. Analysts attribute these increases to the disruption of supplies and shipping routes stemming from the conflict. John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, noted that with no movement in the Strait of Hormuz, prices are expected to continue their upward grind. JPMorgan analysts warned that crude oil supplies from Iraq and Kuwait could cease within days if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, potentially cutting 3.3 million barrels per day by day eight of the conflict. Around a fifth of global oil flows traverse this critical chokepoint.

The disruption to shipping has led to significant impacts on international trade and supply chains. South Korea, heavily reliant on oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz, has secured a deal to import approximately four million barrels of crude oil from the United Arab Emirates. Presidential chief of staff Kang Hoon-sik announced that two South Korean-flagged oil tankers, each with a capacity of 2 million barrels, would be berthed at alternative UAE ports that bypass the Strait. Additionally, Seoul has secured a pledge from the UAE to make up to 2 million barrels from jointly held strategic reserves stored in South Korea available upon request.

The aviation sector has also been significantly affected. Middle East carriers, including Emirates, had suspended global operations following airspace closures in the region due to the US and Israeli strikes on Iran. However, Emirates announced a resumption of its Dubai-Lagos–Dubai flight operations on Friday, March 6, 2026, with flight numbers EK783 & EK784. Despite the resumption, sources suggest Emirates may continue to operate skeletal flights until the crisis subsides. The conflict forced airlines to reroute or cancel numerous services, causing severe interruptions to flights between India, the UK, Europe, the Middle East, and North America.

In Nigeria, the rising global crude oil prices and supply disruptions have directly impacted the domestic fuel market. The Dangote Refinery has explained a N100 increase in its ex-depot price of petrol, attributing the adjustment to the escalating conflict and its effect on global crude oil prices and supply chains. The refinery stated that the price adjustment, an increase of about 12 per cent, followed sharp rises in crude and freight costs. The refinery management noted that they have absorbed 20% of the cost escalation to cushion the impact on the domestic market, despite Nigerian crude oil currently trading above the global Brent benchmark by $3 to $6 per barrel. The landing cost of crude oil at its facility ranges between $88 and $91 per barrel after factoring in freight charges of about $3.50 per barrel. The refinery also highlighted that while it receives some crude supply from the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, the volumes fall short of its operational requirements.

The conflict has also led to other countries reducing output. Iraq, the second-largest crude producer in OPEC, has already cut output by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day due to a lack of storage and an export route. Qatar, a major liquefied natural gas producer, declared force majeure on gas exports, with a return to normal production volumes anticipated to take at least a month. Attacks on oil tankers have also continued in the Gulf, with the Bahamas-flagged crude oil tanker Sonangol Namibe reporting its hull breached after a blast near Iraq’s port of Khor al Zubair.